Bitcoin vs. the S&P 500: what the data shows
Bitcoin has grown faster than stocks, swung far harder, and moved more in step with them since 2020.
From January 2015 to April 2026, on monthly averages, $100 in bitcoin grew to about $29,518 and $100 in the S&P 500 to about $343, but bitcoin was about 5.5 times as volatile and fell over 75% from its peaks. Their monthly returns have become more correlated since 2020 (+0.48, up from +0.25), though that tells you they moved together, not why.
Growth of $100, January 2015 to April 2026
| Measure | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| Value of $100 invested at the start | $29,518 | $343 |
| Average yearly growth | +65.8% | +11.6% |
| Volatility (yearly, from monthly moves) | 66% | 12% |
| Worst fall from a previous high (monthly averages) | −76% (to February 2019) | −20% (to October 2022) |
| Months that ended higher | 59% | 68% |
The pattern is the same as with every comparison over this period: far higher growth for bitcoin, bought with far higher volatility (about 5.5 times the S&P 500's) and much deeper falls. An investor who bought bitcoin at a peak in 2017 or 2021 waited roughly two to three years to get back to even.
Year by year
| Year | Bitcoin | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2015 | +24% | −0% |
| 2016 | +94% | +9% |
| 2017 | +1,741% | +19% |
| 2018 | −76% | −4% |
| 2019 | +98% | +24% |
| 2020 | +204% | +16% |
| 2021 | +124% | +27% |
| 2022 | −66% | −16% |
| 2023 | +151% | +20% |
| 2024 | +131% | +28% |
| 2025 | −9% | +14% |
Change from the December monthly average of the year before to the December average of the year shown. Price index only, no dividends.
Do they move together?
More than bitcoin and gold do, and more than they used to. The correlation of monthly returns was +0.25 in 2015–2019 and +0.48 from 2020 to April 2026 (+0.36 over the whole period). Over rolling two-year windows it ranged from -0.01 (January 2018) to +0.56 (July 2022).
A common explanation is that since 2020 more of the same investors (hedge funds, then ETF buyers and brokerage customers) hold both, so both respond to the same things: interest-rate expectations, liquidity and general appetite for risk. 2022 is the clearest case: as the Federal Reserve raised rates fast, the S&P 500 fell about 25% from its January high to its October low, and bitcoin about 77% from its November 2021 peak to its November 2022 low. A moderate positive correlation still leaves plenty of months when they go opposite ways.
A correlation only says two prices tended to move together (near +1), in opposite directions (near −1), or with no steady link (near 0) during a particular period. It doesn't say one causes the other: both can be reacting to something else, such as interest rates or the mood of investors in general, and the relationship can change or flip. A correlation measured over the past says nothing reliable about the future.
Why they're still different things
A share in the S&P 500 is a slice of 500 companies' profits, and those companies pay dividends. Bitcoin produces no cash flow; its price depends entirely on what buyers will pay. That's why crypto has no equivalent of a price-to-earnings ratio, and why its swings are so much larger. More on the practical differences in crypto vs. stocks.
Past returns don't predict future ones, and the window chosen changes the result a lot. Nothing here suggests what share of a portfolio, if any, should be in crypto.
Frequently asked questions
Is bitcoin correlated with the stock market?
Moderately, and more than it used to be. The correlation of monthly returns with the S&P 500 was +0.25 in 2015–2019 and +0.48 from 2020 to April 2026, but it varies a lot from year to year.
Has bitcoin beaten the S&P 500?
From January 2015 to April 2026, on monthly averages, yes: $100 grew to about $29,518 in bitcoin against about $343 in the S&P 500 price index. Bitcoin's falls were also far deeper, and the result depends on the dates chosen.
Why did bitcoin and stocks both fall in 2022?
Many explanations point to fast interest-rate rises, which hit riskier assets across the board. Crypto also had its own crises that year, including the Terra collapse and the FTX bankruptcy.
Does the S&P 500 include crypto?
Not directly, but several companies in or near it hold bitcoin or run crypto businesses, so the index has some indirect exposure.
Where to next
Sources
- Coin Metrics free daily network data, PriceUSD (GitHub archive, CC BY-NC 4.0)
- S&P 500 index, monthly (Robert Shiller's data to June 2023, then FRED SP500; datahub.io core/s-and-p-500)
- S&P 500 (FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis)
- Online data: US stock markets 1871–present (Robert Shiller, Yale)
Written for beginners and checked against the sources listed. Last reviewed November 5, 2026. This page is educational and is not financial, tax or legal advice. How we write and check pages.